Lovers of alternate history must be fascinated by the most recent “big story” in the news. This is the Iran nuclear agreement. (The most knowledgeable, balanced, and blessedly short report I’ve read is the L.A. Times Iran talks reverberate through web of Mideast alliances.)
This event is one of the pivot points in the history of the world. From here matters can go in dozens of ways. Just off the top of my head here are some.
- The agreement falls through in the next few days, for any one of a dozen reasons.
- The agreement falls through at its end, six months. Again for any one of a dozen reasons.
- The agreement falls through in a year or three. Again FAOOADR.
There is enormous opposition to the nuclear-cool-down program within and without Iran. And most of the groups have real not imaginary reasons for their opposition. The L.A. Times report touches on some of them.
Among other possible outcomes of the cool-down program.
- Iran emerges strong and healthy a few years down the line. And resumes the push toward a nuclear option.
- The Arab-Sunni world headed by Saudi Arabia comes closer together and begins to attack the Iran-Shiite axis in ways both peaceful and violent.
- China, Russia, and the Western nations struggle to influence Iran in ways both peaceful etc.
David Horsey / Los Angeles Times (November 25, 2013)
Click on the image for David Horsey’s thoughtful commentary.